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Thoughts on my domestic strategy?

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Sorry for the ridiculously long post. I might have answered most of my own questions but would appreciate validation or correction.

Our primary goal is to reduce the total cost of our shorter-haul domestic travel.

Regular travel from MSN to DFW (3x per year with 3 seats and a lap infant). Eagle is the only direct flight. United serves this route, but always has a layover. Southwest doesn’t fly here. Tickets on Eagle and United typically $400-525. Direct flights are highly preferred because of our young children. We would also like take a family vacation to PDX/SEA in a couple of years, as well as a family vacation to Scandinavia or BeNeLux in 5+ years.

Up until now, the plan has been to accumulate AA miles, but I recently learned that only 7,500 Avios are required for 1-ways on the MSN-DFW route as opposed to 12.5k for MileSAAver awards. So I’m thinking we should claim miles using our BA Executive Club numbers instead of AAdvantage when we fly. The household account with BA seems like a huge benefit for us since we could pool our miles.

Is that our best option? With the upcoming changes to Eagle, do we risk a change in service that might make putting all our eggs in BA too risky? I understand BA award seat on AA flights are fewer, but by how much?

Then there’s the question of credit cards. Spouse and I both have Citi AAdvantage Gold cards (both targeted 50k bonus offers, have had less than a year, might cancel but free bags are nice). I’ve spent my bonus already. I recently had an AOR and picked up Barclaycard Arrival, United MileagePlus Explorer (50k+5k bonus), and US Airways (50k bonus, 40k w/o balance transfer). My thought was: 1) not pass up 55k United miles since they serve our route, 2) grab the US Airways card with the understanding that the miles can be used on AA and may eventually become AA miles, and 3) use the Arrival for most of our spending as ~$20k spend will net a free roundtrip (opposed to $25k on Citi AAdvantage).

But, considering the 7500 Avios award level for our main route, it looks like the Arrival card won’t be our best bet. Obvious options to earn Avios include the Chase BA card, AmEx PRG (I’m targeted for 50k bonus), and CSP. It seems to me CSP is the least lucrative but most flexible since it also transfers to UA. BA seems pretty good due to 1.25 Avios/dollar reward (and has a lower fee than PRG). PRG looks best as long as the 20-30% transfer to BA bonuses continue in the future. This all assumes 7500 mile reward flights are available.

We don’t eat out much or have entertainment spend. We spend lots on groceries (easily $6k per year) and total about $30k/year in spending. Could possibly manufacture more, but don’t want to rely on that.

Here are some calculations:
Card: Spend per 1-way | cost per mile | # of 1-ways after 5 years based on our spending patterns.
  • PRG: $6250 | 0.0025 | 36
  • BA: $6000 | 0.002 | 32
  • AA: $12500 | 0.001 | 16
  • CSP: $7500 | 0.002 | 25
  • Arrival: $20000 | na | 18.5
(Assumes CSP and PRG both transferred to Avios. PRG cost per mile includes 2x on $6k of groceries and assumes 20% transfer bonus. Arrival assumes $450 ticket. Cost per mile is based on 5 years of annual fees)

There’s obviously also the Ink cards if we wanted to (or were able to) get into the whole Office Depot prepaid debit game, which would be massively lucrative but more work. And while my spouse is considering providing in-home daycare, we don’t have a small business at the moment.

So PRG for long-term and maybe pick up the others for the bonuses, right? Would you AOR again so soon if you were me? My previous AOR was only last week (my FICO is ~800 afterwards). It seems too soon, but I don’t want to miss any good bonuses.

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