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Last Minute Award Availability

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I have a family wedding coming up in Montreal next weekend that I would like to attend (but won't be too bothered if I miss), so I've been looking for both award and revenue tickets. Currently, I see ND* and H (~$1100) availability for DTW-YUL-DTW on Aug 29-Sep 1.

I'd rather not spend the 40k for the ND, since I'm saving up to actually get some good use out of my SkyMiles next summer (to LHR, sitting up front... :D ).

I know this route flies on a CRJ, so there's not too many people on each flight, but what are the chances of a last minute N ticket opening up? And when/how often should I be checking for it?


* - As of writing, I'm actually seeing mixed N/ND (32.5k) as the "lowest" award ticket, even though both dates on the (horrible) DL award calendar are yellow. Go figure. (Also, it's a 7am flight right after the wedding, so... no. Heh.)

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